Wage and salary employment in the textile mills and products industry is expected to decline by about 31 percent through 2012, compared with an increase of 16 percent for all industries combined. Employment decreases will result from increasing worker productivity, an increase in imports, and the decline of the domestic apparel industry-a major buyer of textiles. Nevertheless, job openings will arise as experienced workers transfer to other industries, retire, or leave the workforce for other reasons.
Beginning in 2004, quotas will be lifted on apparel and textiles traded among our major trading partners. Although the agreements to lift quotas will open additional markets to textiles made in the United States, it is expected to result in a net increase in imports of textile products from countries with lower labor costs, particularly China. In addition, the overvalued dollar, unless it can be lowered, will continue to make imports cheaper relative to domestically produced products and will result in a rise in imports. Some textile companies have reacted to the rise in cheaper imports by closing small, inefficient plants or moving production to countries with lower costs. Other companies are consolidating, which further reduces employment.
Some segments of the textile industry, like industrial fabrics, carpets, and specialty yarns, are highly automated, innovative, and competitive on a global scale, so they will be able to expand exports as a result of more open trade. Other sectors, such as fabric for apparel, will be negatively impacted, as a number of apparel manufacturers relocate production to other countries. On balance, textile mills are likely to lose employment as a result of this open trade because of its effect on the American apparel industry. The expected increase in apparel imports and the decline in apparel production will adversely affect demand for domestically produced textiles.
Another major reason for the projected decline in jobs in the textile industry is due to the increasing investment in technology by companies and the resulting increase in labor productivity. Wider looms, robotics, new methods for making textiles that do not require spinning or weaving, and the application of computers to various processes are resulting in fewer workers needed to produce the same amount of textile products. Companies are also continuing to open new, more modern plants, which use fewer workers, while closing inefficient ones. As this happens, overall demand for textile machine operators and material handlers will continue to decline, but improve for those who have the skills to operate the more high-tech machines.
Technology also has its bright side. The United States is leading the world in discovering new fibers and finding new uses for high-tech textiles. For example, biotechnology research is expected to lead to new sources of fibers, such as corn, and improvements in existing fibers. Some fibers currently being introduced have built-in memories of color and shape, and some have anti-bacterial qualities. These technologies and engineering advancements in textile production will be implemented at a growing rate in coming years. It is expected to result in the need for more highly skilled and technical workers, who will be working in an increasingly high-tech environment.