Wage and salary employment in the apparel industry is expected to decline 69 percent through 2012, compared with an increase of 16 percent for all industries combined. The expected decline translates into 245,000 lost jobs over the period-greater than the decrease for almost any other industry. Declining employment will be caused by growing imports, new automation, fierce cost-cutting pressures imposed by retailers, international competition, and mergers and acquisitions. Nevertheless, some job openings will arise as experienced workers transfer to other industries or retire or leave the workforce for other reasons.
Changing trade regulations are the single most important factor influencing future employment patterns. Because the apparel industry is labor-intensive, it is especially vulnerable to import competition from nations in which workers receive lower wages. The protection provided to the domestic apparel industry over the past two decades will be significantly reduced in coming years, permitting more apparel imports. For example, starting in 2004, all quotas for apparel and textile products will be lifted among members of the World Trade Organization, which includes most U.S. trading partners, and, in particular, China. Because many U.S. firms will continue to move their assembly operations to low-wage countries, this trend is likely to affect the jobs of lower skilled machine operators most severely. It will not, however, have as adverse an effect on the demand for some of the presewing functions, such as designing and cutting, because much of the apparel will still be designed and cut in the United States.
New technology will increase the apparel industry’s productivity, but, unlike other industries, the apparel industry is likely to remain labor intensive. The variability of cloth and the intricacy of the cuts and seams of the assembly process have been difficult to automate. Machine operators, therefore, will continue to perform most sewing tasks, and automated sewing will be limited to simple functions. In some cases, however, computerized sewing machines will increase the productivity of operators and reduce required training time.
Technology also is increasing the productivity of workers who perform other functions, such as designing, marking, cutting, and pressing. Computers and automated machinery will continue to raise productivity and reduce the demand for workers in these areas, but the decline will be moderated by growth in demand for the services of these workers generated by offshore assembly sites. The increasing rate at which fashions change also will boost demand for workers employed in those U.S.-based firms that have quick-response capabilities.
Continuing changes in the market for apparel goods will exert cost-cutting pressures that affect all workers in the apparel and textile industries. As consumers become more price conscious, retailers gain bargaining power over apparel producers, and increasing competition limits the ability of producers to pass on costs to consumers, apparel firms are likely to respond by relying more on foreign production and boosting productivity through investments in technology and new work structures. These responses will adversely affect employment of U.S. apparel workers.
The trend today is for apparel firms to merge or consolidate to remain competitive. This trend continues to drive down the number of firms in this industry. In the future, the apparel industry will be dominated by highly efficient, profitable organizations that have developed their dominance through well-recognized strategies that enable them to be among the lowest cost producers of apparel. Consolidation and mergers are likely to result in layoffs of some workers.
