Wage and salary employment in mining is expected to decline by 15 percent through the year 2012, compared with 16 percent growth projected for the entire economy. This continuing long-term decline is due to increased productivity resulting from technological advances in mining operations, consolidation, stringent environmental regulations, and international competition. However, employment in nonmetallic mineral mining should grow slightly-2 percent-because of continued demand for crushed stone and gravel used in construction activities.
Despite declining employment, job opportunities should be favorable for construction, extraction, and production workers in coal mining and nonmetallic mineral mining. Many miners are approaching retirement age and younger miners will be hired to replace the retirees. Job turnover rates also are high in nonmetallic mineral mining because most mines are small and operate only during warm months; therefore, these mines tend to hire workers as they are needed. Jobs in nonmetallic mineral mining attract many migrant workers and those looking for summer employment. Job opportunities for professional workers, such as scientists and engineers, will be best in operations that provide exploration and mine construction services. Opportunities outside the United States will be more numerous because mining companies are shifting mining activities abroad.
Environmental concerns will continue to affect mining operations. Increasingly, government regulations are restricting access to land and restricting the type of mining that is performed in order to protect native plants and animals and decrease the amount of water and air pollution. As population growth expands further into the countryside, new developments are competing for land with mine operators, and residents are increasing their opposition to nearby mining activities.
Uncertainty over access to U.S. land to mine coal and minerals is forcing many mining operations to expand internationally, shifting jobs abroad. Often, lower labor costs and fewer environmental restrictions mean lower production costs. However, many U.S. mining companies must compete with international competitors. Increasing competition causes consolidation among mining operations, which usually leads to job cuts.
Advances in mining technology will also adversely affect employment in mining as new machinery and processes increase worker productivity. New mining machines that are computer-operated and can self-diagnose mechanical problems require fewer workers to operate and maintain. Advances in longwall and surface mining, which are less labor intensive, also have increased productivity, as have improvements in transportation and processing. Additionally, innovations such as roof bolting, self-advancing roof supports, and continuous mining machinery have led to safer, more efficient operations.
Although demand for coal should remain high, employment will decline by about a third through 2012. The products of the coal mining industry are used to produce electricity and steel products. Although production of coal is expected to increase, employment should continue to decline, as more efficient and automated production operations require less labor, and increased competition leads to further consolidation in the industry.
The long-term outlook for coal depends on how electric utility companies-the major consumers of coal-respond to provisions of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, which attempt to limit the emission of sulfur dioxide and other harmful pollutants. Phase I of the Amendments, which took effect in 1995, requires reductions in sulfur emissions from coal combustion. Phase II took effect in 2000, and not only imposes stricter reductions in emissions, but targets the smaller coal-burning plants, not just the largest ones as in Phase I. Compliance involves the installation of costly cleaning and monitoring equipment or increased use of low-sulfur coal. The largest industrial nations also have been pressuring each other to decrease emissions of harmful gases into the atmosphere. As energy plants seek cleaner burning fuel, many new powerplants are being built to run on natural gas. If the demand for coal contracts as a result of stricter environmental regulations, employment in mines will decline further, as mine operators are forced to decrease production.
Despite the trend towards cleaner burning fuel, the United States still is highly dependent on coal as a source of energy. Coal accounts for half of the electricity production in this country because it is the cheapest and most abundant fossil fuel. The rising demand for cleaner burning fuel has resulted in regional shifts in coal production and markets. Because of this, lower sulfur Western coal now accounts for an increasing share of output. This trend is resulting in a gradual regional shift in employment from the Eastern States to the West. Improvements in clean coal technologies also may help the industry cope with increasingly restrictive regulations through projects such as the Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC). This technology combines traditional coal gasification with gas-turbine and steam power to generate electricity more efficiently and reduce carbon and sulfur dioxide emissions.
As in coal mining, continuing productivity increases and industry consolidation are expected to cause employment in the metal ore mining industry to decline through 2012. Because metals are used primarily as raw materials by other industries, such as telecommunications and steel, chemical, drug, aerospace, and automobile manufacturing, the strength of the metal ore mining industry is greatly affected by the strength of the industries that consume its products. The strength of these industries usually reflects the state of the U.S. and global economies. Thus, the strength of the economy over the next decade will influence employment in the metal mining industry.
Metal ore mining is also the sector most vulnerable to international competition. Many nations have mineral resources and, for some developing countries especially, mineral resources are one of the few goods they export. Therefore, mineral resources are being exploited faster than demand for them grows, which is driving down world commodity prices. Because production costs are often higher in the United States than in other countries, it is harder for U.S. companies to remain competitive. As commodity prices drop, many mines merge or reduce their workforce.
Like the metal mining industry, the nonmetallic mineral mining industry is influenced by the strength of the industries that use nonmetals in the manufacture of their products; these are industries in which employment is impacted by swings in the economy. Nonmetallic minerals are used to make concrete and agricultural chemicals and also are used as materials in residential, nonresidential, and maintenance construction. The nonmetallic mineral mining industry experienced slight employment growth over the past decade, largely attributable to construction. The demand for crushed stone and gravel should remain strong over the next few years because of demand for residential housing, roads, and airports.